Zhuo chuang natural rubber research team
Zhuo chuang natural rubber research team
This week, Thailand's national rubber auction came to an end after four auctions in the past two months that left more than 100,000 tonnes of rubber unsold. With the great joy and great sadness and great ups and downs of rubber, Thailand has become the most interesting topic in the market. Next, the team of zhuochuang tianjiao has made a timeline for the recent trip to Thailand, and a look back at the uneasy situation.
Throw a prelude to storage
In 2016, there was a sharp change in the political situation in Thailand. After the military government took power, the Thai government repeatedly intended to auction the country's rubber reserves to alleviate the financial shortage. In December 2016, auction house rubber was put on the agenda. On December 8th, the Thai government decided to set aside a matter of storage. The auction target was 300,000 tons of old glue, mainly smoked film, and a small amount of gelatin.
Due to the long time of warehousing of the rubber, the direct use of the downstream factories is difficult, so most of them will enter the rubber processing plant to process the raw materials and finally make the standard glue. The news confirmed that the main contract of Shanghai jiajiao of the same day on December 8, the end of the three consecutive rise, dropped 105 points.
On December 19, 2016, the storage was determined
Thailand rubber bureau decided to open tender to sell the warehouse storage RSS3 and STR20 rubber, time signing up for December 19 and 20, 2016, and died on December 22nd the bid opening, bidding and three, the first auction of more than ninety thousand tons. This batch of rubber starts at around 70 baht/kg. On December 28, the bid was auctioned for 92,000 tons, 68,000 tons of smoke, 72 baht, and 24000 tons of rubber, 68 baht. The price was lower than that of the market raw materials of the same day.
First take turns on December 28
Thai store 310000 tons of rubber (smoke sheet 200000 tons, 200000 tons of standard rubber) on December 28 to auction of the first batch of rubber, the first auction 92000 tons of Thailand with a total of 28 companies sign up to participate in the auction, but the first auction auction, asking price is too high and the rubber quality is the main cause of the auction.
Due to the 28 day flow, the Thai government rearranged the issue of storage, and the bidding company was re-registered on January 5. The bank will pay the deposit on January 6-8, the deposit on January 9-16, and re-bid on January 17-18. Although the Thai rubber farmers strongly opposed to the government storage, rubber farmers association of ideas also filed a lawsuit to the government after the stop cutting for storage, but judging from the first batch of rubber sell-offs don't delay, government threw the store attitude more firmly, throw in January bid for storage is expected to perform on time.
Thailand rubber farmers for the Thai government auction countries organized opposition to higher storage, spread the message of stonewalled auction for many times, is to occur at the same time, southern Thailand suffered heavy rains and more flooding disaster. However, after mid-december, rubber prices began to adjust for two consecutive weeks, and the main force of the Shanghai rubber on December 27th reached rmb17,200 / ton.
Severe flooding hit southern Thailand in January 2017
In January 2017, a once-in-a-century winter floods, the flood for nearly a month of time, the southern Thailand songkhla, plain le loro, kun mansion severely affected, such as Thailand and the region is also and even southeast Asia the most important production area of natural rubber. From the current open cut area, Thailand has an area of 3.14 million hectares, with 65 percent of them concentrated in the south; In terms of yield, southern production accounts for 70%-71% of Thailand's total natural rubber production.
Floods in January to tapping to suspend work, local transportation were also cut off, according to the Thai flood impact Thailand rubber according to official data output of 350000 tons, loss of production more than 1 month more than 60% of the total production of the high season. Although in February, after the flood in southern rubber output beyond the imagination of all people in the industry, but also did not make the loss of production will be remedied, balance in January and February Thailand rubber production, fell should be between 10-150000 tons.
Affected by the floods in Thailand, the main body of Shanghai jiajiao started the continuous rise of six consecutive Yang, at one point stood at 21,000 yuan, the market's long atmosphere was extremely hot, and the storage was also on the agenda again.
On January 17, the second round of the storage was carried out smoothly
Thai rubber storage second round of the auction was conducted in the January 17, is understood to clinch a deal the price interval of 64-75 baht, clinch a deal of 46000 tons, on January 18, to continue, it is reported by about 67 baht clinch a deal the price, clinch a deal of 58000 tons, it is understood that the Thai government auction inventory rubber, local several big factories was not involved in Thailand, may be worried about the glue storage quality.
Second cast store clinch a deal of 104000 tons, at less than raw material market price of around 20 baht/kg unit price clinch a deal, on January 17, Shanghai rubber rose, began to turn down, out of the four Yin, on January 20, Shanghai rubber main 1705 contract fell 1490 points, or 7.02%, closed drop stop price 19735 yuan/ton.
On February 14th, the third round of the storage was carried out smoothly
Thailand's third round the store rubber auction on February 14, the storage process is very smooth, bidding enterprises are very active, on the morning of that day, a total of 70000 tons, with smoke film seeing an average of 75 baht/kg standard glue clinch a deal the average price of 66 baht/kg. It will continue to auction about 30,000 tons in the afternoon, with a turnover of 25,000 tons and 5000 tons of flow standard. The transaction price is basically unchanged in the morning.
The third round of the sales volume was 95,000 tons, but the actual transaction was less than that. This round of selling is based on a strong rebound in Shanghai, which is also due to the impact of the January flood. The supply of raw materials in Thailand is tight, so the sales volume is relatively smooth. Glue on February 14, but on the day of Shanghai rally, 15 hit 22310 yuan/ton, after three years of high began five Yin losses, which also opens a has continuous declines, to March 23, 1705 Shanghai glue contract has fallen nearly 6000 points.
A bumpy fourth auction
In the previous two auctions, the Thai government actually sold a total of 194, 000 tonnes of rubber, as a result of cancellations. After the third auction ended, Thailand began preparing for a fourth round of auctions, with a planned auction of 125,000 tons and bidding on March 7-8. But because there were few bidders, the auction price was higher than the price of raw materials, and the Thai government did not want to auction it at a low price, so the auction on March 7th ran aground.
Thailand announced a new auction plan on March 15, and the bidding results were announced on March 21. The auction plan has a total of 130,000 tons, with the bidding starting price: RSS3 starting at 64.78 baht/kg; STR20# starts at 57.83 baht/kg.
But this time, the storage was not smooth. On March 21, 16 libraries were auctioned, with a total of 58,000 tons. The total volume of nine Banks totaled 38,000 tons, and the flow took seven kui 20,000 tons, and the second day of the second day was basically streamed. Due to insufficient on bidding enterprise, clinch a deal was cancelled, after this auction, so this batch of auction 13000 tons of the actual total volume, thus, four-wheel auction after the Thai store a total of 207000 tons, that is, the kingdom of 310000 tons of rubber storage auction about 2/3.
For the remaining 107,000 tonnes, the Thai government said it would auction off the "drama" of the country's auction house by the end of may.
