It is expected that the price of Shanghai rubber will remain weak before the Spring Festival
It is expected that the price of Shanghai rubber will remain weak before the Spring Festival
In 2014, the association of natural rubber producing countries members day year-on-year decline in rubber production, domestic Qingdao bonded area for low inventory down to three years, from the Angle of supply, Shanghai rubber markets are the basis of bottoming in the bear market. But demand is still weak and the likelihood of a sharp rebound before the Spring Festival is small.
Policy dividends boost domestic demand
At present, China's economy is under a lot of deflationary pressure: on the one hand, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI has dropped to below 2 percent, while the PPI has been negative for 34 consecutive months. The impact of deflation on the car market is that demand for passenger cars and commercial vehicles will continue to fall.
In the face of deflation, policy interventions are often direct and effective. At present, China mainly starts from monetary policy and infrastructure investment. In early 2015, the central bank continued to make $280 billion in MLF, a move that signaled a slightly looser monetary policy that would boost real economic growth and boost consumer spending. At the same time, the "One Belt And One Road" strategy focuses on promoting connectivity infrastructure, which will effectively boost the demand for commercial vehicles, especially heavy trucks. In 2015, they need to pay close attention to their positive role in the automobile industry.
European and European car market recovery
The latest figures show sales of vehicles in the eu exceeded 12.55 million last year, up 5.7 percent from a year earlier, the first time in seven years that sales have been negative. The U.S. auto market is recovering more strongly, with 16.5 million units sold last year, the highest since 2006.
Thanks to a strong recovery in the auto industry, the U.S. and Europe have also seen a sharp increase in tire sales. In 2014, the number of passenger car tires shipped in Europe was 197 million, up 2% from the same period last year. U.S. tire sales will reach 310 million, up 4.7 percent from 2013. Therefore, the global rubber demand is expected to continue to increase with the driving of the European and American automobile markets.
It is difficult to prepare goods before the Spring Festival
Due to the "double anti-investigation" and overcapacity, the current domestic tire enterprises have low operating rate and weak demand for rubber.
In 2014, tire prices fell for the third year in a row, while the average price of passenger car tyres fell 14.85%, while the average price of trucks and passenger cars fell 13.39%. In 2014, the profit of domestic tire industry gradually fell from the years peak, and in August it hit a year low, falling 18% year on year. Considering the price is lower during the first half of the second half of 2014 rubber, tire manufacturing costs down, profits should be growth, but the actual profits drop reflects the excess supply, low price competition makes profit severely eroded, it may further cut at centralized purchasing intention of rubber.
In 2014, the U.S. auto market recovered strongly, but China's tire industry was blocked from the party because of the "double negative" investigation. Last year, the us Commerce Department announced, on China's passenger car and light truck tires to countervailing preliminary, universal countervailing preliminary rate is 12.03%, plus anti-dumping tax rate, the overall tax rate is expected to more than "safeguard" period. In terms of time, the enforcement time of relevant tariff penalties is generally years, and the Chinese tire export market is not expected to recover.
With less than a month to go before the 2015 lunar New Year holiday, it is not expected to show up before the holiday.
nodule
Overall, although the supply side continues to improve, domestic rubber demand is relatively weak, and the future market needs to pay close attention to the positive support from policy. It is expected that the price of Shanghai rubber will remain weak before the Spring Festival
