The domestic plastic market is further down
The domestic plastic market is further down
The main body of plastic futures has continued to fall for five months since early July, and was hit by a sharp drop in crude oil at the end of November.
Since the OPEC meeting on November 27, L1505 has fallen to 950 points, and we expect that the systemic risk and production pressure of crude oil decline will continue, with the overall short trend unchanged. Since the second half of this year, with the production of large coal polyolefin devices, the interests of domestic plastic market have changed a lot. In the past due to domestic sinopec [microblogging] and oil can adjust the output to control the supply and demand situation of domestic plastic market and price level, domestic plastic market in a relatively closed state.
From the October yield data, LLDPE's production edged up to 38.40 million tons, but due to a sharp drop in imports, the apparent supply dropped to 539, 000 tons, the lowest of the year. Demand side film and agricultural film slightly month-on-month increase at the same time, the plastic film and agricultural production and apparent supply difference rose to 73.8 in October, high-lever in years, and this is mid to late October a wave of rebound. In fact, the gap between supply and demand in the plastic market rebounded in September. As of November 30, domestic PE inventories fell by 2.51 per cent month-on-month, indicating that the supply and demand situation from spot is not very bad. We believe that the new capacity projection is an important factor in the decline of plastics. In the second half of the extension, shaanxi yulin 900000 tons of polyethylene device on the market, and ningxia baofeng in December and pucheng, a total of 600000 tons of production, new capacity gradually released, low-cost coal polyolefin will bring certain impact to the market.
With the change of the pattern of domestic plastic market interests, plastic futures and the linkage of the international crude oil market, past two related levels rose to 0.9 above, the international crude oil tumbled to the domestic plastic market has been hit. OPEC meeting to maintain production targets in the decision of the same 30 million barrels of oil prices fall further, the current international crude oil market is in the interest structure reshape the early stages of a producer, producer of market share by Saudi Arabia first battle has just begun, short-term will not end, and there is growing momentum. Global demand for OPEC crude in 2015 will fall to its lowest level in more than a decade, the organization of petroleum exporting countries said in its monthly report on December 10. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories rose 1.5 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 5, according to the U.S. energy information report, which surprised most analysts' forecasts of a decline in inventories. Multiple bearish factors have pummeled the oil market and on December 10th WTI crude reached a five-year low of $60.94.
In summary, in December, most domestic plastic production facilities started working normally, and the new installation put further pressure on the market. The gap between OPEC and U.S. crude oil market share is the medium and long term, with international oil prices falling during the year. Affected by the above factors, the domestic plastic market bears the idea of unchanged, recommended investors to hold the blank, can be bounced up to open a short position.
