The "air raid" on plastic falling off chemicals intensified
The "air raid" on plastic falling off chemicals intensified
In the upstream crude oil fundamentals still weak, the domestic chemical industry futures price declines in the pace of acceleration.
After the eighth day of this month, the price of domestic chemicals in the last Friday fell again. Among them, the main contract of plastic main contract drops, PP, methanol main contract drops all in 3.5 %, PTA main contract drops nearly 3 %.
"The continuous decline of domestic chemicals is both internal and external." Shanghai chemical researcher Chen Ruibi medium-term futures for futures daily reporters that China's recent economic operation is relatively weak, and due to the need of the economic transformation in China, in the short term is difficult to appear positive fiscal policy and monetary policy, resulting in the commodity market risk preference significantly weaker. In this context, due to the sharp decline in international crude oil prices during the National Day long holidays, the cost of production of related chemicals has been reduced, and the price of chemical products such as PTA has been significantly suppressed.
Some market participants believe the glut of crude oil, which has been "falling and falling" since mid-june, remains difficult to change.
DE futures macroeconomic researcher KouNing believes that the key to below $90 a barrel level after the U.S. crude prices downward space is open, it will hold on the downstream chemical price formation pressure. However, with the minutes of the fed's September meeting revealing more dovish signals, the dollar index is likely to remain high, promising a short-term boost to crude prices.
What could lead to international oil prices, said Chen Ruibi stabilize rebound even there are two main factors: first, if international oil prices fall further, hit the cost of shale oil, will force us shale oil producers to reduce production; Second, at the OPEC meeting in late November, OPEC members could agree to cut their daily output targets.
Stone futures chemical researcher tao said, the recent crude oil prices on the one hand, due to a strong dollar, on the other hand is due to the euro zone economy, cause the apparent consumption of crude oil shortage, "the future if the global economy cannot be improved significantly, crude oil prices weak".
On Friday, the black industry chain emerged from a rare recent rally, with a 2.34 percent rebound in the main iron ore contract. Does this mean that the housing credit policy of the pre-holiday period began to boost the prices of related varieties?
, KouNing, said last Friday in varieties of black industry chain rebound at the same time, some building materials such as glass variety trend is still weak, so the black variety in the industry of rebound is affected by the housing credit policies. Recent investment in railway continued fast growth, and August country budgetary allocations to accelerate the growth of investment in fixed assets, thus causing black variety rebound in the industry of factors may be the increase in infrastructure investment, especially in railway investment. Given in the fourth quarter the economy there are still large downside risks, infrastructure investment is expected to remain stable, the railway investment will become the main means of stable economy, this will continue to pose a bullish to varieties of black industry chain.
"The rebound in the black industry chain is just a rebound, possibly a flash in the pan." Hutao said that after the credit policy of the housing market was released, a large number of real estate developers remained on the sidelines. It is not the external factors that can really boost the price of coal coke, but the development of related industries themselves. Capacity and structural adjustment are urgent, only "breaking" can "stand".
