The supply variable frequency is short or repeated in plastic
The supply variable frequency is short or repeated in plastic
Recently, with the consumption of the high season to drive down the overall inventory of plastic, LLDPE has shown a strong rebound in the weak pattern since December, while the newly listed PP is also following higher. In terms of supply and demand, although plastic consumption will show a seasonal decline after April, there are also significant changes in the supply side, and there are still large and repeated possibilities for plastics in the short term.
The overall plastic inventory did not continue to rise after the Spring Festival, but gradually decreased with the start of the consumption season. According to the same caliber estimates that by the end of the weekend refinery inventories fell back to 950000 tons, the peak close to 20%, and recovery of consumption on spot prices are also evident in the support, the dalian exchange, LL and PP are maintaining backwardation pattern.
Market has widespread concern about the new capacity in 2014 and put into operation or to the forward price of plastic forming huge, especially in the aspect of PP, this also prompted the dalian Commodity Exchange (microblogging) PP contract forward greatly discount. But, more than the old device maintenance and new device delay lead to the excess supply of spot hasn't appeared, but cause low spot inventory, induce futures L1301, L1305, frequent L1309 crowded warehouse phenomenon.
This possibility is also present in LL and PP. In terms of the previously announced supply plan, 2014 LL new device scale is relatively limited, sichuan petrochemical 400,000 tons of ethylene has been put into production in early march and is still in the trial stage. Only two coal chemical plants were put into production in the second half of the year. However, the production scale of PP is huge, with more than 400,000 tons of devices including sichuan petrochemical, yulin energy chemical, yangzijiang petrochemical, shenhua coal, and the annual total of more than 4 million tons.
However, there is still some uncertainty about whether the relevant capacity can be put into operation successfully, and after may, there may still be more equipment maintenance in the supply side. In the case of LL, it has been basically established that the zhenhai refinery or maintenance after may, and shenhua or gradually transferred after may; In the recent large-scale maintenance of the PP, multiple installations are still in discontinued state.
