The plastic market is expected to be difficult in May
The plastic market is expected to be difficult in May
The market is down, on the one hand, the price of raw materials is falling, and the cost is increasing. More important is the high social inventory, the market destocking process is not ideal, resulting in oversupply, and the downstream demand growth is slow, the supply and demand contradiction is increasingly prominent.
First of all, the decline in the cost to drive downstream plastic products, according to business clubs monitoring the upstream main product: styrene butadiene (20.14%), (2.00%), calcium carbide (1.88%), (1.82%), and other upstream naphtha product mainly is generally downward to the downstream PS, ABS, PVC, PE, and other products lose the cost of support, under the background of the prominent contradiction between supply and demand, downlink has become inevitable.
Supply side, in March 2017, the primary shape of plastic yield is 7.52 million tons, up 4.6% from a year earlier, in April, factory equipment maintenance strength is not big, most concentrated in May and June device into the overhaul period, so the estimate in April general plastic production remains high. In addition, imports, China imported 2.71 million tons of plastic in primary form in March, up 11.06% from a year earlier, the domestic production and imports of combination, leading to social high inventory, inventory data from also proved the oversupply situation: such as LLDPE, as of April 19, east China, north China, south China, central China's petrochemical industry inventory of 65000 tons, an increase of 10400 tons, from April 12 at a high level; The social inventory is about 500,000 tons, at extremely high levels, which has produced a strong clampdown on plastic prices, and the market of PE, PP, PVC and other products needs a new round of inventory process.
Look at demand side, in March 2017, plastic products production of 6.71 million tons, up 3.3% from a year earlier, while the downstream demand is growing, but the increase is far lower than the production of plastic raw material (11.06%), is currently operating at downstream, April figures will probably continue to shrink, packaging film starts 6, PVC profile, pipe starts is generally less than 5.
Market oversupply of contradictions or in May will be eased, from the point of polyolefin plant overhaul plan, most of the equipment maintenance time concentrated in the middle of may to early June, the market is expected to accelerate to inventory process, market do not prevent the possibility of existence to, but the demand side, film, agricultural film, drawing end of the season, the market is in the off-season, more importantly, the real estate related pipe, profile rut, limited market prices may rebound, is expected to market a hotspot in May, the market may rise and fall are difficult, the amplitude of products will continue to narrow, PP, PE may be a slight rebound, but not very big, is expected to within 3%.
