The price of crude oil is down
As the raw material of plastic, the price trend of crude oil is closely related to plastic, which is usually consistent in the trend. It is understood that the correlation coefficient between the two has been over 80% this year, but the trend has also been divided in stages. The correlation between plastics and crude oil has fallen to around 64 percent since may, and its interactivity has been significantly weakened since August.
International crude oil prices have been falling recently, with prices hitting a new low. However, the trend of domestic chemical industry has been inconsistent with the price of crude oil and has been relatively firm. Among them, plastic and polypropylene have a strong rebound. For now, the spot price of plastic has rebounded about 10 percent from its recent low. To market confusion, under the background of the federal reserve to raise interest rates expected increasingly intense, crude oil and outside dish plunging, vinyl monomer and demand continues to shrink, chemicals but shows a tendency of doesn't fall, it just for our favorite stylemakers showed strong?
"Crude oil prices are positively correlated with the overall plastic, but not entirely linear." The price of crude oil only determines the cost of olefins, but the price of plastic depends more on the balance of supply and demand than on the cost, said pan zengan, a futures analyst at societe generale. In July, according to Pan Zengen plastic prices from high fell by about 15%, markets digested the previous repair unit production supply increase brought about by the negative, and absolutely entered a low price. However, after entering August, some traders began to hype the periodic lifting of plastic prices caused by the agricultural film season, which resulted in a deviation from the short-term trend of the price of plastics and crude oil.
In the view of analyst zhao honghu of yide, the link between plastic and crude oil is divided into transmission mechanism, including confidence conduction and cost conduction. "In the current financial market, confidence transmission is often more important." Zhao honghu believes that the current plastic price is so strong, on the one hand, the frequent accident overhaul of the equipment in July and August, and the conversion of the full density device to HDPE, resulting in the reduction of market supply; On the other hand, with the traditional seasonal season, the market is related to good expectations.
According to the reporter, the influence of the equipment overhaul and the whole density device, the supply of the plastic and polypropylene brushed material, as the subject matter of futures, has been greatly damaged. Current petrochemical inventory low, in which the threads are expected to be in short supply for a period of time. At present, it has entered the traditional peak season, and the lower reaches begin to prepare the goods. The demand recovery is supported by the market.
At present, plastic seems to be at the critical point. In the industry, the market's previous factors have been largely released, and whether this strength can be sustained depends on the cooperation of the terminal market.
