Strong plastic still needs to look at supply and demand
Strong plastic still needs to look at supply and demand
Since February, under the resonance of multiple positive factors, plastic futures have shown a sharp rise in price.
The personage inside course of study expresses, bottom part fund, the first downstream stock up in advance, petrochemical factory released years maintenance plan, and market factors such as macroeconomic policy easing to boost plastic futures launches. The future trend of plastic futures also depends on the supply and demand situation, and it is expected that the post-market price will be more likely to maintain the high volatility after the rebound.
The multi-factor resonance "raise" the price of the crude oil since January 29, 2015 has rebounded, the domestic plastic futures price started to continue to the current rally. As of yesterday's close, 1505 contracts for plastic futures closed at 9,645 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan or 2.61%. Since February, the contract has risen nearly 1,500 yuan or more than 18 percent, making it a leading commodity in the domestic commodity futures market.
Guotai junan futures (microblogging) chemical, researchers said sha-ron recent plastic futures strong performance was mainly affected by four factors: first, in February after falling oil prices rebounded sharply, there are many on the market bottom; Second, the Spring Festival is relatively late this year, and it will soon enter the peak demand season in March, so the market demand is boosted by the pre-holiday stocking. Third, some petrochemical manufacturers announced the overhaul plan after the year, and it is expected that the spot supply will decrease after march and April, which will aggravate the market speculation. Finally, the market macro policy accommodative, the interest rate cut will give rise to the commodity market.
"Although plastic futures have been more aggressive since February, the impact factors and the performance of the disc have been different before and after the festival." The south China futures energy analysis normal red xia believes that the Spring Festival is the boundary, the early Spring Festival price increases mainly to benefit from the downstream replenishment demand, the spot transactions good drive. And after the Spring Festival, due to the lack of obvious direct messages on the spot market, the market is still not fully recover, and petrochemical stock is not as expected, the overall inventory of just over 900000 tons, belong to the petrochemical controllable scope, the factor which fuelled the imposing manner of bulls continue to push up prices. In general, this wave of market pushed up mainly due to funding plays a leading role, combined with the central bank on Saturday [microblogging] interest rates policy, market the anticipation of liquidity enhancement, all bring certain boost to market sentiment.
However, from the current situation of the spot market, as the downstream and traders return to the market, the overall market situation is gradually improving.
Sha-ron said, from the whole situation of supply and demand, the downstream has gradually entered the peak season, but due to long holiday period, petrochemical companies and coal accumulating more inventory, plus imports in March, supply of goods on the port, the market supply is guaranteed. From the current supply and demand pattern, the futures have been overbought, and the price increase is more from the speculation. "The spot market performance remains a key factor. If the spot market performance, poor sales situation, market speculation mood will cool, speculative funds also will appear so fast, short industry may be financed by hedging operations. However, if spot remains strong, fundamentals and capital resonance will further drive up prices. In general, the market will also depend on the extent to which the downstream processing enterprises accept the spot price.
Afternoon high and volatile probability for afternoon, galaxy futures researcher QuShi creek, said the current crude oil has been showing signs of bottoming out, and the polyethylene manufacturer centralized maintenance plan will be in the spring of 2015, the new capacity on the mainly concentrated in the second half of the year, for the first half of the price is affected, polyethylene in more hype atmosphere, this time band do polyethylene risk is relatively small.
Hong-xia fan, said from the demand side, with the demand of agricultural film, demand condition, but due to the factory first stock movements, overdrawn part needs ahead of time, has a direct influence on the market of new demand will appear at the end of march before, I'm afraid. On the supply side, the petrochemical pressure is less than the same time last year. Therefore, it is unlikely that the supply and demand will diverge sharply in March, but it will not rule out the fluctuation of short-term factors. In April, by contrast, the possibility of conflict differentiation is larger, but the market start time dependence on petrochemical maintenance and other policies, capital factors must be considered at the same time on the inter-temporal and across a variety of effects.
In addition to the supply and demand situation, sha-ron also made analysis from two aspects, he thinks, must cut interest rates in the first quarter has been cashed, reduction in a short period of time of another rate cut is unlikely, speculative speculation also won't last. In addition, the current production profit of plastic remains at a high level, so the impact of oil price on plastic prices will gradually weaken. For the price of final judgment or depends on supply and demand situation, and in the second quarter of plastic futures for march are relatively neutral view, futures is expected to rebound after partial likely to remain high and volatile.
