The fall in oil prices will benefit the chemical industry in the medium term
The fall in oil prices will benefit the chemical industry in the medium term
International oil prices hit a record low of more than five years as of December 10. American NYMEX1 on crude oil futures prices fell $2.88, or 4.51%, and the biggest one-day fall since Nov. 2, and close to $60, to $60.94 a barrel, the lowest since July 2009 zhang tiger raise CE brent crude oil futures prices fell $2.60 in January, or 3.89%, to $64.24 a barrel, also create the lowest close since July 2009. The data show that the downstream consumption structure of oil is expected to remain stable for quite some time. Of these, the transportation industry accounts for about 60 percent of oil consumption and about 25 percent of industrial consumption. Direct ship industry is significantly positive with a drop in oil prices, a drop in oil prices in the short term or bad chemical industry, but oil prices downward price stabilization, cost reduction will bring substantial positive to the industry. Industry profitability improved in a drop in oil prices and the downstream peak season effect is not obvious under the double negative, chemical prices in the near future the overall soft, some products price lost cost to support all the way down, and even fell to a new low in recent years. The latest monitoring data from the business news agency shows that in the 48th week of 2014 (December 1, solstice, December 5), the domestic chemical market continues to decline, and there is no sign of stabilization. Business club zhang Ming chemical industry analyst pointed out that the bad conduction upstream crude oil cost, make most affected petrochemical industry chain, combined with market demand, light to styrene, pure benzene, toluene, xylene, phenol, acetone, aniline market closer to the deep, in the styrene, acetone, and other products under the condition of low prices in years, also the entire depth of the chemical industry to adjust the track. However, he also pointed out that, depending on the specific supply and demand pattern of the industry, different prices of different products in the future market are expected to diverge. Brokerage analysts note that the fall in oil prices in the short term will be bearish, but it is expected to be hard to change in the medium term, and companies are expected to benefit from lower costs when prices stabilise. Ping an securities research report pointed out that the wheel oil prices plunged in 2008 during the financial crisis, the last round of slump in oil prices impact on the chemical industry can be found, the first drop in oil prices influence is big, cause downward pressure to inorganic chemicals, rubber, oil prices fell early fall of other chemicals, over time, the price also a declining trend, but lower than the price of oil. In terms of the impact on corporate earnings, the oil price has been declining in the early stages due to inventory adjustment. In addition, the lower oil price has a big difference in the direction and strength of the influence of the sub-industry, and the profit margin of the sector is expected to improve significantly in this round of decline. Molecular industry a significant reduction in the cost of part of demand growth, customer price sensitivity is low, the competitive landscape is good child industry will directly benefit from lower oil prices, gross profit margin on textile chemicals, polyester, modified plastics, etc effect is more obvious ascension and improve profitability. Automotive modified plastics have been more stable in recent years. The main raw materials of this kind of products are the various plastics in the lower reaches of oil, and the overall price has a strong correlation with the price of crude oil. Oil prices fell sharply in the second half of the year and accelerated in the fourth quarter. With the price of crude oil and associated downstream plastic raw materials lower, the industry's gross margin and profitability are expected to improve. The fall in oil prices will also significantly reduce the cost of the chemical fibre industry. Compared with the polyamide and polyester industries, such as polyamide and polyester, the stable demand of spandex and high-end polyester industry will directly benefit from the obvious decline of raw material cost. In addition, textile auxiliaries will benefit from lower oil prices. It is understood that the cost of raw materials is about 90% of the production cost, while more than 60% of the raw materials are petrochemical products. As the crude oil price falls back, the profits of the industry will be improved.
