Foreign Banks sing a lot of China's economy: this year or 8.5%
Foreign Banks sing a lot of China's economy: this year or 8.5%
China's GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 will rise to 7.9% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2012, a year-on-year increase of around 7.8 percent, according to the report, which is due to be released on Friday. Driven by many positive factors, China's economy is expected to grow between 8% and 9% in 2013, with market expectations of 8.5%.
/ Goldman sachs gao hua Chinese economist yu song, is expected in the fourth quarter GDP growth will rise to 7.9% from 7.4% in the third quarter year-on-year growth, harvest, industrial added value growth rate and real estate sales rebound provides support to the GDP growth picks up. The bank's gold research center also forecast a slight rebound to 7.9 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, with real growth at around 7.8 percent for the full year.
In addition, foreign institutions such as jpmorgan chase, DBS, and calys are expected to grow between 7.6% and 7.8% in 2012.
Looking ahead to 2013, more Chinese and foreign institutions, including HSBC, deutsche bank and ubs, are expected to grow between 8 and 9 per cent in 2013, with market expectations of around 8.5 per cent. Analysis of drivers of economic growth in 2013, in addition to the recognized destocking, increase infrastructure investment, and a modest recovery in the global economy and positive, a driving force for economic point of view is slightly different.
Haibin jpmorgan's China economist, thinks that in 2013 China's economic outlook is dependent on the two fundamental factors: from the perspective of the cyclical economic growth will continue for recovery, the main benefit from the policy easing, the real estate market recovery, the influence of manufacturing destocking twist and a modest recovery in the global economy. From a structural point of view, the potential growth rate of China's economy has continued to decline since 2007. The structural slowdown is due to a gradual reduction in WTO dividends, weak global terminal demand, and changes in the domestic population structure and employment market conditions, resulting in higher production costs and lower competitiveness.
China's GDP growth will rise from 7.8 per cent in 2012 to 9 per cent in 2013, according to DBS research. Growth will come mainly from domestic demand rather than exports.
Calyon bank economist Gao Dexin 15 said in Shanghai, in 2013 China's economic growth is expected to back up to 8.5% from 7.7% in 2012, which will help drive economic growth in other parts of Asia rose from 4.4% to 5.4%, and the overall economic growth in Asia will accelerate from 6.1% to 7%. For monetary policy, Mr Gaudsen expects central Banks in Asia to take a modest tightening of policy in 2013. China is expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, which would encourage other Asian economies to follow suit.
