Industry news: plastic seasonal rise is expected to expand
Industry news: plastic seasonal rise is expected to expand
New plastic network - on November 12: the early stage of the market after the eu summit expectations, industrial products in the fall in resonance, which created panic super plastic, L1301 fell to 9900 yuan/ton, L1305 down to 9600 yuan/ton. Recently, the plastic market has been repaired, L1305 has been restored to the 10,000 yuan pass, and the market for plastic seasoning in the back market is expected to expand. Plastic is undervalued relative to the price of crude oil. First of all, crude oil, as the source of the commodities, has a great influence on plastic prices. The correlation coefficient of the price index and WTI crude oil price in July 2007 is 0.856, which is highly positive correlation. Based on the current price of crude oil to estimate the plastic index futures price of around 11200 yuan/ton, the theoretical value and contrast can be seen even plastic futures index value, current plastic relative to WTI crude oil prices at cheap price. Second, the current price is upside down. Early industrial goods falling form the resonance, the plastic of the panic, however, east China, south China, north China's spot price did not appear to fall, quotation is still strong. The author believes that the firm of petrochemical quotation will provide a good support for the futures market. As of November 9, the closing price of L1301 was RMB 400 / ton in the spot price in north China, east China and south China, and the average price of L1305 was 830 yuan per ton in the spot price of the spot in north China, east China and south China. The plastic source is tight and the current plastic is in a tight balance between supply and demand. The supply side is reflected in the two consecutive years of destocking and subsequent release of goods. Last year and this year's supply was down, and supply was slowing. Petrochemical limit production's price policy in April, as a result, the monthly production PE production appeared a rare phenomenon, by last year's monthly output 850000 tons, down to the monthly 800000 tons this year. In addition, because of the weak market, the import is only to make up for the shortage of domestic production, it is difficult to see the traders big currency phenomenon. Overall, the growth of plastic supply has been slowing down. Since October 9 - domestic petrochemical plant maintenance, so the domestic release production, during the same period of weak market, and Iran to export restrictions on PE, so subsequent imports also won't release too much. Plastic film consumption has changed the downstream of LLDPE mainly for agricultural film and packaging film. By comparing monthly growth this year and in previous years, plastic film, monthly growth rate this year than in 2009 and 2011, the highest monthly growth in March this year was 20.86%, and other monthly basically remain at around 13%. The fourth quarter of the year is often the fastest growing season for plastic film production. Considering that domestic consumption and exports have improved for two consecutive months, this year's peak consumption is also expected. Therefore, the pre-fall of LLDPE is the foundation of foundation. The supply of goods is tight, the demand is the rise guarantee, in the value repair support and the supply and demand balance, the plastic seasonal base rally is expected to expand.
