After the beginning of winter, how will the market of PP play?
After the beginning of winter, how will the market of PP play?
The beginning of winter is over, and winter is coming. In north China and dry climate cold wind will bring, just as in the second half of this year PP market, turmoil in the international environment, the domestic commodity markets have been affected, polyolefin market also influenced. At this point, the domestic PP market appeared more insipid, and the big drop was not reflected. However, the natural wheels of the wheel go forward, and winter comes, can spring be far behind? Today, I will analyze the PP market after National Day and make a brief outlook on the later market.
Enter November, the PP market in the periphery environment turmoil, the terminal demand is limited, the overall situation is in a concussion negative trend. Small scale downstream enterprise receiving care at present, a large number of stock is not much, the recent petrochemical maintenance enterprises, the market supply of goods circulation speed is slow, so the market traders how low inventory operation. In order to complete the plan, some merchants will make a flat or small price reduction. However, the market has been limited by the cost of the goods in the hands of the shipper, presenting a dilemma of the current fluctuation dilemma.
Peripheral economy: since the European debt crisis has resurfaced and spread, it has become the focus of global attention. Let most investors fall into worry, operate prudently and avoid risk.
Costs: less than a month's time, WTI unconsciously from $80 / barrel mark quietly climbed to one hundred yuan of above, in addition to the affected by the European debt problem, also lies in its unique fundamental news, a good boost to give strong support. Compared with the plastic LLDPE in the same period, the increase is obvious. From LLDPE futures, we can see that the upward pressure remains on the market plagued by the European debt crisis. People in the market are worried about the market, and they will ship less. Petrochemical listed sales, the market support weakened, the terminal on demand purchase, resulting in the market stalemate situation.
Supply and demand: the cumulative total output of plastic products in China from January to October 2011 was 435.57 million tons, up 20.6% from the same period in 2010. In the first 10 months of this year, the cumulative production of PP in China was 7822 million tons, up 6.4% year on year from 735.0 million tons. The equivalent of an average of 50,000 tons of supply per month, which shows that domestic PP consumption is increasing year by year, and the PP market still has broad prospects. In October this year in the domestic plastic products production 5.105 million tons, compared with the same period in 2010 increased by 24.3%, the domestic PP production in October of 796000 tons, year-on-year growth of 2.4% last year (777000 tons), from September (722000 tons) increased by 10.2%, the increase of production on the one hand, it can be seen that PP market demand is increasing on the other hand for short-term market will absorb a certain amount of stress. On the demand side, the export growth rate has been falling for two consecutive months, compared with the previous month. The export enterprises of products are still the main force of domestic demand. The economy of major developed countries has been growing at a low speed and unemployment is still high, affecting consumption and demand. In the case of weakening foreign trade, China's GDP growth slowdown can be clearly predicted, and weak demand is still the biggest sticking point of the weak market in post-polypropylene market.
Market: this month, petrochemical manufacturers have not had much parking and maintenance, and the market supply is normal. At present, the low inventory operation mode of traders is bound to increase the inventory pressure of petrochemical industry, which limits the space and power of petrochemical market. Because of the increase in the cost of borrowing and labor, and the purchase of goods, the downstream factories have caused some enterprises to not accept or accept orders, so the profits of the enterprises have been severely squeezed. In the short term, the restriction of terminal demand is still the main factor that the PP market is unable to go up.
The market forecast: the current European debt crisis is expanding to the core countries, and the spread has spread. Although Greece and Italy, members of the euro zone, have taken steps to address their respective national problems, they have been watching the latest developments with suspicion. In the short term, the turmoil in domestic commodity markets triggered by the European debt crisis will still exist, which will transmit to the spot market and affect the market mentality. Petrochemical listed sales, market support strength weakened, the downstream demand side of the short time in the improvement, overall, the negative trend of the PP will continue.
