Polyester, weaving inventory high - level PTA industry chain is a drag
Polyester, weaving inventory high - level PTA industry chain is a drag
Nowadays, the textile tradition of "golden nine silver ten" has become a fond memory for textile people. During the traditional high season in September and October, the industry of weaving industry didn't rise and fall, saying, "don't mention it, let's go with the wind". The upstream end performance does not enter into October, PTA downstream weaving fabric market is still like a cup of warm water. Even after National Day's return, the raw material market was buoyant, but the downstream weaving industry was hard to come by. According to futures daily reporter understanding, during the National Day holiday, the international crude oil prices sharply higher, as a result, CFR China PX prices rose 7%, PTA spot prices also rose nearly 5% in addition to xiamen or close to the PTA downstream polyester product or outside, polyester short and sliced up in 2.5%, and pet bottle flakes of 1% polyester FDY such, DTY rose by 0.5% in spite of this, because of the "golden nine", terminal market mentality generally cautious. "During the National Day holiday, a lot of weaving and ammunition factories were on holiday, and the loom load in zhejiang and zhejiang plunged to 62 percent, down 9 percentage points from early September." Jin You Wei Lin futures analyst told reporters that although the post-holiday factory gradually return to work load has been improved to 72%. But the market for "silver ten" is not too big hopes that most factories only maintain rigid inventory. For weaving enterprise, since this year, the whole textile poor environment and stock market sharply oscillation, downstream terminal problems of shortage of funds is very outstanding, it is affecting purchasing, downstream of the receivable is slow, lead to weaving enterprise stock up carefully. It is understood that the downstream market has been more active in the same period last year, some manufacturers have oversold products, and the demand for raw materials is also increasing. "Driven by demand, polyester did well in October and November last year." Chinese silk are Wu Xiaofen network analyst, demand late this year, however, even in the peak season, the downstream stockpiling intention is not strong, still generally weaving enterprise raw material stock up cycle in 10 days to half a month, and in 2013 before the peak season raw material stock up cycle of 20-30 days. In the case of the current weaving market order, the frequency of market orders and turnover is lower than in previous years. Since this year, according to industry insiders, both in domestic and export orders is given priority to with small batch, batches, originally a product can place the order in September in tens of meters, and until the end of September this year order tens of thousands of meters, and as many as more than 20 kinds of color, the price also dropped 10% from a year earlier. But in order to maintain the customer, even if profits are diluted, enterprises can only choose order follow up. It is understood that the macro environment affects both domestic and export markets to varying degrees. For the weak performance of the terminal market, a number of weaving enterprises believe that the export amount of textile garments in China has been shrinking, which is the internal reason for the decrease of orders in the weaving season. According to customs data, August 1,, our country textile clothing export amount is $184.476 billion, fell by 4.61% from this month, three months before export or positive growth, but after entering April exports to negative growth and decline gradually accelerated, overall performance is far worse than the previous two years. "China's textile export amount is present a downward trend, on the one hand, because of the textile industry in southeast Asia in recent years rapid development, take a part of China's market share, on the other hand, the domestic part of the textile production to southeast Asia countries such as Vietnam, the Vietnamese artificial cost is much lower than the domestic, companies can save a lot of cost." Gao jianming, an investment researcher at hairong, thinks. "In the competitive market of southeast Asian market with more cost advantage, the export proportion of low and medium clothing fabrics in China has been significantly reduced, so that the foreign trade orders made by weaving are underperforming this year." Wu xiaofen said, in addition, domestic apparel home textile enterprises inventory high enterprises, constantly shrink the store, slow the purchase speed also further affected the end of the production of the downstream demand. It is worth mentioning that the low construction of PTA and polyester is one of the most obvious features of this year's weaving market. Since the beginning of this year, the probability of each large weaving cluster has not reached full load, and the probability of opening up in most areas is about 70%. In fact, it is not only the terminal weaving industry, the current PTA and polyester markets are also in a depressed state. After the National Day holiday, the PTA plant load slipped to 58%, 10% lower than the same period last year, polyester factory load slipped to 77%, slightly higher than the same period last year 5%, jiangsu and zhejiang loom load slipped to 62%, 15% lower than the same period last year. "Although this year's polyester start load is higher than last year's level, this is the moment." Wang guang-dong, a futures analyst at dongwu futures, explained that last year, when the PTA factory had led the downstream polyester factory to take joint production cuts in the same period, last year, the production base of polyester was low. However, as crude oil plummeted in the second half of last year, the cost of the downstream industry fell sharply and the orders of the terminal weaving industry increased significantly, and the polyester load showed a gradual recovery process. "For this year, while raw material prices are relatively low, but the terminal demand downturn, and the current polyester production profits and inventory pressure is bigger, the late polyester load higher space is limited." Interview, many in the industry are reflected, polyester product inventory at a high level for a long time, causing prices to conduction harder, polyester products with higher price weakness, related enterprise cash flow condition is poor in last year's average level. "Because the cost transmission is not smooth enough, the increase in the price of raw materials has not brought benefits to the polyester enterprises, but has resulted in the deterioration of the polyester cash flow." According to wei Lin, as of now, the cash flow of the benefit has been slightly better. The cash flow of DTY has been reduced from 255 yuan per ton before the festival to 23 yuan/ton. The cash flow of FDY, which is basically break-even before the festival, has become -196 yuan/ton. Similarly, the PTA industry in the upper reaches of the year has not been so easy this year. It is reported that this year the domestic plans on the PTA production capacity of 6.65 million tons, a new device of constant force in the first quarter petrochemical 3 units production 2.2 million tons/year, BP zhuhai 3 period in early July 1.25 million tons/year new device has been successfully put into production. At present, PTA gross domestic product in China can reach 46.93 million tons, which exceeds the total domestic polyester output and the oversupply situation is aggravated. "In the second quarter, the accident happened in the second quarter. In the third quarter, the number of PTA installations in China was centralized and serviced. The average load of PTA in China was 66.4 percent this year, 3 percentage points lower than the average load in the same period last year. However, the profit situation of PTA factory has not been improved." According to wei, the average loss at PTA factories this year is around 300 yuan/ton, which is significantly lower than the same period last year. The hard time of the industrial chain will continue because current PTA, polyester, weaving are high in inventory, leading enterprises to carry on. This year's performance, as the source of the industrial chain, has also been a big drag on downstream market prices. Since late June, international crude oil prices have continued to plummet, with the WTI and Brent crude oil indexes down around 16%. "At this time last year, WTI crude was trading around $86 a barrel, and the current price is below $50 a barrel. The collapse of crude oil prices has a direct impact on market confidence." Wu xiaofen said that although crude oil has bounced back several times this year, the overall situation is still low, which makes the market bearish. "With geopolitical factors and a weaker dollar, the price of crude oil has rebounded. But the international oil supply and demand pattern that dominates the oil trend has not changed significantly. The supply of crude oil in September was 3157 million barrels a day, the highest since 2012. The price of crude oil plummeted by more than 5% in response to the news, and the whole industry chain was downgraded. Wei Lin said. In addition, from the market reaction to see that, despite the recent crude oil rebounded slightly, drives the rise of polyester, but terminal order's capacity is limited, and weaving enterprise financial strain, high inventory, the market for "silver ten" market expectations is not particularly big. PX, PTA, pet, meanwhile, the whole industry chain of excess production capacity in severe cases, and terminal textile and garment enterprises fail this year is more, plus the Banks to tighten lending, shrinking orders seriously, the market competition is fierce. Market people believe that the "light" situation of the downstream weaving market will be the "yoke" of suppressing PTA and the whole polyester market. The PTA market, even if it is boosted by crude oil, will be weighed down by the downstream market, which will not have good prospects in the short term. In wang guang's opinion, because the surplus capacity of the PTA industry chain is not effectively cleared, the market competition is serious, and finally the profit and cash flow of each link of the industrial chain will be compressed. The market's weakness will continue until the industry chain's inefficient capacity is uncleared. Terminal demand and crude oil price weakness are difficult to reverse in the short term, and the PTA supply pressure will increase. It is understood that the 400,000-ton, yisheng petrochemical plant in Shanghai jinshan petrochemical has been restarted on the first two days. "In accordance with the overhaul plan, the 2.2 million tons of the facility will also be restarted in late October, and the market supply will be more relaxed," he said. Wei Lin believes that the short-term PTA price will continue to be weak.
